How to Spot Trends Before They're on the Way Out

by Grace Butland

inside gallery
In New Albany, Ohio, the owners of Out of the Ordinary gallery say that they follow housing trends in the area to get a feel for the needs of the area's changing clientele. New upscale housing is bringing in different customers than before, says co-owner Leslie Wright.

Retailing is a trend-sensitive business. Some trends are as simple as a change in consumer preference for medium or color. On a larger scale, certain lifestyle trends are reflected in our customers' choices of styles or specific items. When more people start gardening, for example, there is a greater demand for garden-related accessories. The trick in retailing is to spot trends while they are gaining momentum, not when they are losing it.

How and where to spot trends

Oftentimes there is a lag between the emergence of a national trend and the time it will begin to affect your business. Effects of local trends -- those that are a function of your geographical location or customer demographics -- are more immediate. No matter where the trend originates, if you spot it early enough and anticipate its effect on your business, you'll be prepared when your customers start asking for trend-related items. If you wait until the demand is there, you'll lose potential sales while you search for the specific items, place your order and wait for delivery. If you wait until the trend is on the downside, you may be left with unsalable inventory. Spotting trends early is the key to successful buying.

The trends that drive your customers' purchasing decisions are reflected in the crafts industry as well as in the society at large. Information on craft trends is available from several sources: Major wholesale show promoters report buying trends after each show; many crafts magazines cover the topic as well. Color trends are regularly forecast by the Color Marketing Group (CMG), a non-profit association of 1,500 color designers who forecast colors for manufactured products. CMG's forecasts are widely publicized in magazines and newspapers, and are included in The Crafts Report's annual Trends issue each January.



Understanding trends
and how they affect
consumer demands
gives you a
"crystal ball"
to predict the future.

Sources of information are everywhere for discovering the trends emerging nationally and locally among the buying public.

  • Newspapers report on local and national trends. My local paper recently ran a Chicago-dateline article reporting that crepes, fondue and quiche are enjoying a resurgence. This indicates a potential demand for baking and serving dishes for these foods.

  • Decorating magazines feature the latest trends in color and design for interiors. Pay special attention to the ads for paint and furniture for clues on which colors and styles are becoming popular.

  • Furniture stores reflect current and future decorating trends in your local area.

  • Home construction is both a reflection of lifestyle trends and an excellent predictor of buying trends.

    inside gallery
    At Pankratz Studios & Gallery in Monument, Colo., a customer's idea led to the creation of one of the gallery's best-selling items. Potter Richard Pankratz worked with the customer to develop a bulk wine server.

    For Cindy Hoskins, co-owner of EarthenWorks in LaConner and Port Townsend, Wash., home accessories are a big part of her business. So she reads decorating magazines and regularly checks the local furniture stores. She also watches new construction in her area, particularly noting what building materials are being used. "You have to think about what accessories go with stone floors versus wood floors, or granite counter tops versus Formica," she says.

    What types of homes are going up in your area? Traditional, contemporary, colonial and log cabin all call for different decorating styles and colors. New construction is also a predictor of future customer demographics. The size and location will indicate whether the homes are for business executives, retirees, couples with young children, etc.

    Leslie Wright is co-owner of Out of the Ordinary, a gallery located in the long-time farming community of New Albany, Ohio. She knows that the new homes being built in her area, with prices ranging from $500,000 to $2 million, will bring in a different type of customer. "I'm listening to these new customers and trying to bring in the type of work they talk about," she says.

  • Community events can generate local trends. When New Albany's first Jewish Temple opened recently, Wright anticipated a demand for Judaica and added several lines to her inventory; sales have been good. The opening of a golf course in your community could generate a demand for golf-themed items.

  • Your customers are a valuable source of information. Take note not only of what they ask for, but of what's happening in their lives. Are they re-decorating their homes? What styles and colors are they using? What have they observed in their travels?


    SOME CURRENT TRENDS

    The Crafts Report conducted an informal survey of galleries nationwide to get a feel for current trends. They reported strong demand for:
  • glass
  • large sculptural pieces (any media) for table-tops or walls
  • handpainted items (with scenes or motifs versus just color)
  • teals, purples and metallic colors
  • picture frames
  • water fountains
  • functional pieces

    Thanks to the following retailers for their support of the survey: Annie Kaill's, Juneau, Alaska; By Hand South, Inc., Decatur, Ga.; EarthenWorks, LaConner & Port Townsend, Wash.; Gallery Alta Vista, Valle Crucis, N.C.; Kentuck Art Center, Northport, Alaska; Mana Beads & Jewelry, Kailua-Kona, Hawaii; Out of the Ordinary, New Albany, Ohio; Pankratz Studios & Gallery, Monument, Colo.; Stitch'n Post, Yerington, Nev.; The Hobby House, Barnes, Kan.; The Roland Art Glass Gallery, Ketchum, Idaho; Upstreet Artes, Pittsburgh, Pa.

    • Linda Pankratz, co-owner of Pankratz Studios & Gallery in Monument, Colo., credits a customer with the idea that led to one of the gallery's best-selling items. The customer saw a bulk wine server while traveling in another country and worked closely with potter Richard Pankratz to develop a similar one. You can work with any of your gallery artists (provided they are willing) to develop specific items when you see a demand.

  • Television shows reflect popular culture and can be a predictor of trends -- for everything from jewelry and clothing to furniture and colors. It's a good idea to check out the most talked-about shows occasionally. One of the best examples of this is when the show "Friends" exploded onto the scene, making the "Y" necklaces enormously popular.

  • Fashion trends can help you predict what styles and colors of jewelry, scarves, belts, and other fashion accessories your customers will soon demand. These trends can be seen on the street, on billboards and advertisements, commercials, magazines and television shows, so they're hard to miss if you're aware of them.

    Can trends be dangerous to your business?

    It is unquestionably important to stay abreast of trends and consider them when buying for your gallery. On the other hand, it's dangerous to buy into national trends without first filtering them through a local lens to determine what they will mean to your business. I know. I bought pottery with a Southwest theme for my gallery when that trend became popular about 10 years ago. I failed to consider that my business was located in a major bastion of colonial tastes. My customers in northwest Connecticut never embraced the Southwest theme, and I learned an expensive, but valuable, lesson.

    Understanding trends and how they affect consumer demands gives you a "crystal ball" to predict the future. With the big wholesale shows coming up next month, there's never been a better time to become a trend-spotter.

    Grace Butland owned and operated Variations American Crafts Gallery in Riverton, Conn., for 10 years. She
    currently resides in Musquodoboit Harbour, Nova Scotia, Canada.

    JANUARY 2000: TABLE OF CONTENTS